The
national housing agency said Monday in its first-quarter 2012 report
that the foreseen stability stems from an economy that appears set to
expand at only a moderate pace over the next two years. The Bank of
Canada's key overnight rate — which affects mortgages tied to prime
rates — will likely remain low until mid-2013, which should also act to
keep activity on an even keel.
"With
the Canadian economy set to expand at a moderate pace and mortgage
rates expected to remain low, activity levels in 2012 in both new home
construction and sales of existing homes will stay close to levels seen
in 2011," CMHC deputy economist Mathieu Laberge said in a statement.
Low
mortgage rates and high demand have driven housing prices sharply
higher in large urban centres such as Toronto and Vancouver, leading
many experts to warn that a housing bubble could burst when rates
finally do rise.
Despite
those warnings and alarms from top government officials that Canadians
are taking on too much debt overall, the housing market has seen little
change over the past few years, with price growth slowing but not
retreating in most areas.
The
CMHC says it expects the average house price in Canada to hit $368,900
for 2012, with a projected range between $330,000 and $410,000,
according to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association's MLS
service.
For 2013, that number rises to $379,000, with a range between $335,000 and $430,000.
"The
moderate increases in the average MLS price are consistent with the
balanced market conditions that occurred in 2011, and that are expected
to continue in 2012 and 2013," CMHC said.
Housing
starts are expected to be around 190,000 units this year and 193,800
units in 2013, while existing home sales are expected at about 457,300
units in 2012 and moving a little higher to 468,200 units in 2013.
The
CMHC predicted that housing starts will be in the range of 164,000 to
212,700 units in 2012, and between 168,900 to 219,300 units in 2013.
Existing home sales are expected in a range from 406,000 to 504,500
units in 2012, rising to 417,600 to 517,400 units in 2013.
Western
Canada is expected to see strong growth in new housing starts, with
Alberta leading the way with a 13.2 per cent increase. However, the
agency said it expects housing starts in Saskatchewan to contract by
about 2.7 per cent in 2013.
In
Eastern Canada, all provinces are expected to see a contraction in
housing starts for 2012, with "modest growth" returning to Quebec and
Ontario in 2013.
The
agency noted that the fate of an economic recovery in the United
States, Canada's largest single trading partner, could have an immediate
affect on Canada's housing industry —
"Some
upsides include the potential that the U.S. could recover more quickly
than anticipated, which would be positive for U.S. employment and
economic growth," CMHC said.
"In turn, this could boost employment growth in Canada and thus lead to a stronger than expected housing market."
Conversely,
if the U.S. recovery hits a snag and emerging economies see their
growth slow while Europe suffers a slowdown, that could lead to slower
employment growth in Canada and place a chilling effect on the demand
for housing.